Lead Ingot Market Faces Supply-Demand Imbalance Amid Price Volatility

As of February 2025, the global lead ingot market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to a combination of high inventory levels and volatile pricing. In August 2024, China's refined lead imports surged to a record 53,000 metric tons, marking a shift from its traditional net exporter status. This change was primarily driven by a squeeze on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) lead contract in July, leading to a shortage of deliverable metal in the domestic market and opening an import arbitrage window with the London Metal Exchange (LME).The increased imports have redistributed global lead stocks, halting the previous build-up in LME inventories. Despite this, the ShFE lead market remains vulnerable to renewed tightness, especially if domestic production issues persist. Both primary and secondary lead producers in China have faced challenges, including a 9.2% decline in lead concentrate imports and a 34.4% year-on-year decrease in secondary lead output as of September 2024In early February 2025, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 17,060 yuan per metric ton, briefly touching a low of 17,015 yuan per metric ton before closing at 17,055 yuan per metric ton, down 0.2%.